Austin housing market on track for record sales as home sales jump throughout MSA The Central Texas real estate market is headed for record-breaking sales this year. November home sales throughout the five-county Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) pushed the year-to-date total to 30,561 sales, which is approximately 300 homes shy of last year's total sales volume. Each county experienced a double-digit increase in home sales; the city of Austin slightly rose 4.5% to 670 sales, according to the latest monthly report from the Austin Board of REALTORS® (ABoR).
This November’s home sales are considerably stronger than 2018 numbers, indicating the demand for housing in the greater Austin area has not ebbed despite projections for a slowdown, Vaike O’Grady, Austin regional director for Metrostudy, said. “This time last year, we expected the housing market would slow, but that’s not been the case. We’re seeing very strong numbers for new homes across the board,” she said. “Because Austin is severely constrained, home builders are moving outward in search of lower land costs and development opportunity. The surrounding counties are going to continue to emerge with the current demand.” In the Austin-Round Rock MSA, single-family home sales in November experienced a double-digit percent increase of 14.3% to 2,554 home sales, with a sharp rise in sales dollar volume of 18.3% to $984,201,220. The median price for single-family homes increased 1.7% to $305,000. During the same period, new listings decreased 0.5% to 2,351 listings; active listings decreased 14.7% to 5,744 listings; however, pending sales spiked 21.9% to 2,526 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory declined 0.5 months year over year to 2.1 months of inventory. In the city of Austin, the median price for a single-family home increased 10.6% to $405,000—the highest median price for any November on record. Single-family home sales increased 4.5% to 670 sales and sales dollar volume increased by 12.7% to $329,203,254. The median price for single-family homes rose 10.6% year over year to $405,000. During the same period, new listings decreased 15.1% to 595 listings; active listings decreased 33.3% to 997 listings; however, pending sales jumped 14.1% to 688 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.6 months year over year to 1.3 months of inventory. (information courtesy of ACTRIS)
National Market Update
New single-family home sales were up 16.9% from a year ago, rising 1.3% in November. The average pace of sales for the past three months hit a post-recession high even if the 719,000 unit annual rate was slightly lower than expectations. The National Association of Home Builders confidence index hit its highest level since 1999 in December and builders are clearly optimist with low mortgage rates and wages growing. This confidence shows through in the amount of housing starts, which is 13.6% ahead of a year ago.
Freddie Mac's December report forecasts home sales at 6 million this year, 6.2 million in 2020, and 6.3 million in 2021 and their chief economist adds, "the outlook is bright," thanks to "low mortgage rates and the improving economy."
Fannie Mae also predicts low rates will continue. While they're not forecasting the rate drop we saw this year, they expect the average fixed rate mortgage will maintain record low levels. Nothing has changed Wall Street's view that the Fed will keep rates where they are for all of next year.
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